Early warning systems: does anyone act on the warning?
We can forecast a flood three days out. Evacuation still happens on the day, when it is dangerous.
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People move when someone they trust tells them to, not when a system does. Who delivers your warning matters more than how early it is.
We had the same with typhoons. Routing alerts through local leaders rather than SMS changed behaviour more than any accuracy improvement.
brian_otieno: People move when someone they trust tells them to, not when a system does. Who delivers your warning matters more than how early it is.
We have been treating this as a technical problem for two years.
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